|
|
Post by howe9scores on Apr 9, 2017 22:42:34 GMT -5
2017 NHL Playoffs First Round beginning April 12
Through the use of 22 statistical variables which have a direct bearing on any team’s performance over the course of the season, and on into the playoffs, it can be ascertained with a high probability of outcome the winners and losers of a series . In fact, over the last several seasons and playoffs, that forecast of performance falls into a 87 to 90 percent likelihood of accuracy.
But of course, there are upsets which arise from time to time (usually in the first or second round), an underdog team disposes of the more talented and favored higher seed. Nothing is perfect. It is an extremely rare event for a bubble team which makes the Playoff Cut to capture the Cup in the final analysis.
For the upcoming first round, based upon my statistical analysis, as I see it, the likely outcomes are listed below . . .
Eastern Conference:
Caps over Leafs
Montreal over Rangers
Pittsburgh over Columbus
Boston over Ottawa
-----------------------------------------------
Western Conference
Edmonton over San Jose
Anaheim over Calgary
Minnesota over St. Louis
Chicago over Nashville
But, again, nothing is etched in stone. It should be interesting and entertaining for many, if not for most true lifelong hockey fans.
You never know for sure, there just might be one or two (maybe even more) upsets in the first round. Have fun.
(Note: Corsi Stats are not incorporated into the Analysis. Corsi Stats are too random, unreliable, and too subjective. And as result, Corsi Stats do not Correlate with Team Performance on any level or with any aspect of the game).
|
|
|
|
Post by PierreC on Apr 9, 2017 22:52:54 GMT -5
agree with everythign except i think the Sens will beat Boston and the Sharks will beat the Oilers
|
|
|
|
Post by number13 on Apr 10, 2017 7:50:28 GMT -5
I've been avoiding thinking about the playoffs so it wouldn't depress me  It is really strange for the first time in 26 years we're done after 82. I'll start thinking about them as round 1 starts Wednesday this week. Although I love my Red Wings I'm a fan of the game of hockey first so I'll still enjoy the playoffs but is going to be weird not having a stake in anything. Watching the closing ceremonies from the Joe last night really hit home. So many great memories for me from JLA even though I haven't been to it sine 87, I saw plenty of GLI games, Red Wings games and concerts at the Joe from the time it was built until the time I moved to Texas in 87 and then every game since NHL CI started up. |
|
|
|
Post by howe9scores on Apr 10, 2017 8:04:45 GMT -5
Pierre - - - I could also see the Sharks over the Oilers - - that's what my statistics reveal.
However, over the last ten games, the Oilers have been really hot. So, based upon that momentum, I shifted from the statistical overall evidence favoring the Sharks to a team on a roll, the Oilers.
As I stated above, upsets over the statistically favored team do occur.
Let the games begin.
Hopefully, next year, the Wings will be back in a big way, or at least, making strides to regain an elite status.
|
|
AJM
New Member
Posts: 8 
|
Post by AJM on Apr 10, 2017 11:41:32 GMT -5
I'll give it a go......
Caps > Leafs Habs > NYR Broons > Sens BJ's > Pens
Hawks > Preds Blues > Wild Ducks > Flames Sharks > Oilers |
|
|
|
Post by number13 on Apr 10, 2017 12:35:20 GMT -5
Montreal over NYR in 6
Boston over Ottawa in 6
Washington over Toronto in 5
Pittsburgh over Columbus in 6
Anaheim over Calgary in 5
Edmonton over San Jose in 6
Chicago over Nashville in 7
Minnesota over St Louis in 6
|
|
|
|
Post by Iceman on Apr 10, 2017 16:47:19 GMT -5
as I see it in the first round
Caps > Leafs
Rangers > Canadiens
Jackets > Pens
Bruins > Sens
Oilers > Sharks
Ducks > Flames
Wild > Blues
Preds > Hawks
Now let's roll the dice.
|
|
|
|
Post by chris on Apr 10, 2017 17:39:27 GMT -5
Although I love my Red Wings I'm a fan of the game of hockey first so I'll still enjoy the playoffs but is going to be weird not having a stake in anything. I'm actually a fan of the Wings and could care less about hockey, so I'm out. Sad but true. Time to start getting out and working in the yard. Although I probably will check in on the board now and again. The only thing interesting about the Wings now is the re-build and coaching. Is Holland up to the re-build? Is he up to firing Blashill? My moneys on Holland, but we'll see. I think Kenny Holland with picks could be a dangerous thing. |
|
|
|
Post by jarvisredwing on Apr 11, 2017 10:33:59 GMT -5
While I misplaced the link I took a look at what the experts said at the start of the year and many of them had Tampa in the final and some even winning it all. Goes to show how things can change.
Not going to pick all the first round series but here's a few of my thoughts.
Caps need to show that they are playoff team but pounding the leafs 4 games to 1. If the leafs can extend them to seven games then I think the Caps might fall short again.
Oilers and Sharks should be an interesting series but keep in mind that Mclelland was the previous San Jose coach and that can be a big plus in knowing your opponent as well as he does.
Pens, if healthy, could win it all again but they have lost Letang so many Columbus can pull this one out in what may be the best first round series.
Ducks are boring so I'm rooting for Calgary. The Flames are a streaky team so it depends what type of streak they are on.
Hawks should be in it again.
Don't know what to make of the Wild.
One more side note: the Wing players gave ZEE a gift certificate to play 5 highly rated golf courses at the end of the year. Most cases I think someone would be glad to take that but it has a different connotation for a hockey player as it means you missed the playoffs. They should have given him a week in Bora Bora.
|
|
|
|
Post by howe9scores on Apr 14, 2017 12:24:30 GMT -5
Season ending totals on the teams who made the Playoff cut were not available until after the first round games had begun.
As with any array of data, measurements are relative. This year’s performance of Playoff bound teams exhibit a extremely narrow range in about half the match-ups.
Consequently, these match-ups could go either way as far as which team progresses to the next round:
Canadiens vs Rangers
Columbus vs Pittsburgh; but the Pens have a superior depth of experience and psychological edge.
Oilers vs Sharks playoff experience is an advantage to the Sharks. Season-ending momentum advantage to the Oilers.
Preds vs Black Hawks Chicago has the Playoff experience edge.
Match-ups which reflect a meaningful statistical performance edge are listed below:
Caps encompass a dominate statistical edge plus Playoff experience over the Leafs.
Boston has a highly meaningful, statistical difference over Ottawa
Anaheim has a much higher statistical performance plus Playoff experience over Calgary
Minnesota has a reasonably higher performance edge (but lacks a successful history in the Playoffs); whereas, the Blues have Playoff experience but have a history of always falling short of capturing the Cup.
------------------------
In summary, as I've always stated, statistics provide guidelines and probabilities of outcomes, but other aspects can and will come into play in the final outcome. None, more so, than many of the match-ups in this year’s playoffs.
|
|
AJM
New Member
Posts: 8
|
Post by AJM on Apr 16, 2017 18:14:19 GMT -5
I'm sure that the Hawks and Wild (and a few other teams as well) are dwelling on "guidelines and probabilities of outcomes" right now.
The only stat that matters = final score.
Play-off hockey flat out has proven that over history.............. FACT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by PierreC on Apr 16, 2017 23:45:56 GMT -5
I'm sure that the Hawks and Wild (and a few other teams as well) are dwelling on "guidelines and probabilities of outcomes" right now. The only stat that matters = final score. Play-off hockey flat out has proven that over history.............. FACT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But i wouldn't bet against the Hawks, even down two games... |
|
|
|
Post by number13 on Apr 17, 2017 10:02:53 GMT -5
Chicago is reminding me of Detroit a bit. Their fan base is a bit bothered by lack of intensity so far. I remember us being like that and our guy being too calm and patient all the way to an early exit  . They do have too much talent and experience to count them out...I have a feeling that they'll wake up here. |
|
|
|
Post by howe9scores on Apr 17, 2017 10:49:17 GMT -5
So far, the first round of the playoffs has exhibited great goal tending, intensive hitting, speed, thrills, drama (quite a few OT games), and disappointment for some favored teams which I have indicated would happen in previous posts. All of which will continues in the next several games plus the following three rounds.
Last year and the previous year, the guidelines and probabilities played-out to be 87 to 89 Percent ACCURATE over 15 match-ups each year.
Will, the playoffs this year yield the same results - - maybe or maybe not. Also, as I stated previously, nothing is etched in stone.
But you can bet all the coaches are going over all their stats, which include my 22 variables, plus much more, and are discussing lineups and pairings which will generate more goals for, and fewer goals against.
Last year in the first round, one of the favored teams were defeated in the first round, and one favored team lost in the second round. In total, 13 favored teams out of 15 won their match-ups.
Not bad in anyone’s book .
But in any event, we’ll see how it all ends up this year. Enjoy the games, I am.
|
|
|
|
Post by number13 on Apr 17, 2017 13:49:24 GMT -5
It s a bit early to be saying look at my picks and check out my accuracy hahah...hell 2 of the series are tied right now Playoffs re best of 7 for a reason You got to play the games |
|
It is really strange for the first time in 26 years we're done after 82. I'll start thinking about them as round 1 starts Wednesday this week. Although I love my Red Wings I'm a fan of the game of hockey first so I'll still enjoy the playoffs but is going to be weird not having a stake in anything.
.